Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, called a national referendum which took place on 2 October 2016 on the relocation proposals outlined by the European Commission last year in response to the refugee crisis in Europe. The Prime Minister advocated a rejection of the EU proposals, for which a majority was required with a turnout of at least 50% of the electorate. Among those who voted there was overwhelming support for Prime Minister Orbán’s position, however, only 43.9% of eligible voters cast their votes.

Background

In September 2015, the European Commission proposed the relocation of 160,000 people in need of international protection among the EU’s 28 Member States. The proposals included mandatory quotas in order to alleviate pressure from the countries most affected by the refugee crisis, notably Italy and Greece. The European Council approved the plan with a majority, despite rejections by a number of Member States, including Hungary, who has yet to resettle any of the 1,294 refugees allocated to it under the plan.

Prime Minister Orbán said that the EU could not impose quotas on Hungary against the will of its Parliament, and in February 2016, called for a referendum to be held on the issue. The referendum was worded as follows: ‘Do you want the European Union to be entitled to prescribe the mandatory settlement of non-Hungarian citizens in Hungary without the consent of Parliament?’ It had been expected that the vote would reject the quota system, with analysts pointing to Hungary’s lack of experience with immigration as a key factor, as well as recent events, including the explosion on 24 September in Budapest, which was believed to be aimed at the Hungarian police.

Hungary has separately taken a case about the refugee quotas against the European Commission to the European Court of Justice. The Hungarian Parliament voted to take legal action in November 2015, claiming that the quota system ignores the European principle of subsidiarity: that decisions are made as close as possible to the national citizens; and fails to grant national Parliaments the opportunity to express their opinions.

Result

The result, announced on the evening of Sunday, 2 October, showed that over 95% of those who voted in the referendum supported Prime Minister Orbán’s position and voted ‘No’, rejecting the EU proposals. However, only 43.9% of eligible voters cast their votes, which is below the minimum requirement of 50% for the referendum result to be constitutionally valid. Turnout was higher in border areas of Hungary to the South and West, which have been most affected by the flows of refugees and migrants.

Reaction

The result has been reported in the media as both a defeat and a victory for Prime Minister Orbán. On the one hand, the Prime Minister’s referendum campaign failed to encourage a majority of Hungarians to vote and his position has been questioned by members of the opposition. On the other hand, rejection of the EU proposals was almost unanimous from those who did vote, with figures showing that a greater number of Hungarians voted against the quotas than voted for EU membership in 2003. Prime Minister Orbán has called the referendum a success, urging other EU leaders to take note of the result and claiming that the constitution of Hungary should be changed to reflect the will of the people.

Prime Minister Orbán claims to be leading what he calls a “cultural counter-revolution” against the dominance of the EU, having previously accused the EU of trying to “redraw Europe’s cultural and religious identity” as a result of the response to the refugee crisis. Following the referendum result, he told supporters “Brussels or Budapest? That was the question and the people said Budapest.” The Prime Minister has said that he hopes that other Member States will follow the Hungarian example and hold a similar vote on the migration and refugee issue in particular. There is a wide consensus among the major political actors in Hungary, however, that leaving the EU is not a desired option, given the importance of EU subsidies and trade for the country’s economy.

Reaction to the referendum result has varied. A number of European politicians have commented on the invalidity of the vote, including Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn who stated that 2 October was “a bad day for Viktor Orbán and a good day for Hungary and the European Union”. Minister Asselborn had previously called for the ejection of Hungary from the EU over its treatment of refugees. Other politicians pointed to the failure of what they saw as populism and xenophobia driving the discourse during the referendum campaign. Conversely, right-wing politicians such as MEPs Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage commented on the overwhelming majority of voters who rejected the EU proposals, urging the EU to listen to the Hungarian people.

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