Europe’s migration and refugee crisis has been called the worst of its kind since the second World War. More than 1 million people arrived in Europe in 2015 according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), compared to 280,000 in 2014. As of 7 August, the figure for 2016 stands at 275,108 new arrivals.

Background
As defined by the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), migrants are people who choose to move to another country mainly to improve their lives by finding work, or in some cases for education, family reunion, or other reasons. Refugees, on the other hand, are defined as fleeing armed conflict or persecution and cannot return home because it is too dangerous. They are protected under international law by the 1951 Refugee Convention, which defines what a refugee is and outlines the basic rights afforded to them. Refugees seeking recognition under the 1951 Convention are also called asylum seekers. The majority of recent incoming migrants to Europe are refugees. More than 1.2 million refugees applied for asylum in EU countries in 2015, according to Eurostat. Of these, at least 95,000 are reported to have been unaccompanied children. The biggest driver of migration into Europe is the conflict in Syria, but ongoing violence in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as abuses in Eritrea, are also major push factors for people seeking a safer life.

Why is it a crisis?
These numbers are not excessive when compared to neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, which has taken in 1.1 million Syrian refugees, which is the equivalent of a quarter of Lebanon’s entire population. Difficulties have arisen owing to the perceived disproportionate responsibility between EU countries. Under the Dublin Regulation, which is part of the Common European Asylum Policy, those wishing to claim asylum must file their claims in the first member state in which they arrive. It is incumbent on that country’s government to process the claims, although refugees can be transferred to another EU country if they are in possession of a valid residence document or visa from that country. Refugees can also be transferred to another EU country if their family is already there, which in the case of unaccompanied minors means that they can be reunited with family members who are legally living in another member state. In spite of the new provisions that streamline the procedures, processing asylum claims has proved overwhelming for countries in the south-east of Europe who receive the largest number of refugees, namely Greece and Italy. In 2015, a total of 857,363 migrants and refugees arrived in Greece, including 56,000 who arrived on Greek islands in a single week. The country has struggled to cope with filing applications while simultaneously tackling its financial crisis.

As well as the issues facing migrants and refugees when they arrive, a further humanitarian crisis has arisen owing to the high death toll among those attempting to enter Europe. During the first five months of 2016, the IOM estimates that 1 in 23 people died attempting the journey along the Central Mediterranean route, while in 2015 the ratio of deaths to attempted crossings was 1 in 53.

Resettlement and the EU-Turkey refugee deal
Following proposals by the European Commission in an attempt to respond to this, EU countries committed in September 2015 to relocate 160,000 refugees from Greece and Italy by September 2017. This commitment followed an agreement among member states in July 2015 to resettle 22,504 people in clear need of international protection. As of 13 July 2016, according to the European Commission, the total number of relocations from Greece and Italy stands at 3,056, while 8,268 people have been resettled.

In March 2016, the EU and Turkey agreed a refugee deal. Under the EU-Turkey Agreement, Greece would return to Turkey all irregular migrants who arrived after 20 March 2016. The EU agreed to resettle one Syrian refugee from Turkey for every one irregular migrant returned from Greece, up to a total of 72,000 people. Turkey was to receive €6 billion in aid and EU accession talks for Turkey were also reopened. As of 13 July 2016, 802 Syrian refugees had been resettled in the EU under this deal.

The EU-Turkey deal has proven controversial among human rights groups, who question its legality. Refugees are protected in international law by the principle of ‘non-refoulement’ whereby it is illegal to forcibly return a refugee to a country where their lives or basic human rights may be in danger. In June 2016, Amnesty International published a report describing the deal as illegal on the grounds that Turkey is unable to ‘respect the rights and meet the needs of the three million asylum-seekers and refugees’ that it currently accommodates.

Development of the EU-Turkey refugee deal
The level of migration to Mediterranean countries has fallen since the refugee deal came into effect in March. According to figures from the UNHCR, 3,650 migrants and refugees arrived by sea to Greece in April, compared to 57,066 arrivals in February. In July 2016, 1,855 migrants and refugees arrived by sea to Greece, down from 54,899 arrivals in the same month in 2015.

The level of migration has also reduced in Italy when compared to 2015 figures, albeit at a much lesser rate. Yet, the number of new arrivals of migrants and refugees has increased month on month since the EU-Turkey deal came into effect. This shift in levels of new arrivals between Greece and Italy indicate that perhaps the deal has not stopped refugees coming to Europe, but rather that they have changed their route as a result of it.

The viability of the refugee deal may now be in question following the Turkish government’s response to the attempted coup of 15 July 2016. In a European Council statement, the EU reiterated its full support to the ‘legitimate institutions’ of Turkey and referenced that, as a candidate country for EU membership, Turkey would need to sustain its democratic laws, including unequivocal rejection of the death penalty, which is an essential element of EU accession criteria. President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, stated that bringing back the death penalty, which was abolished in 2004 in order to help Turkey’s accession request, would close the door to any possibility of Turkey joining the EU. Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has not ruled it out though, stating that if the people voted to reinstate the death penalty, he would carry out their wishes. If EU accession talks are officially closed, the EU-Turkey refugee deal may cease to apply.

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