It was announced on Sunday (27 September, 2015) that a campaign launched in June, by the Dutch satirical news/activist website, GeenStijl , has exceeded the minimum signatures required in Dutch law to trigger a referendum. Approximately 440,000 signatures were amassed by the campaigners, surpassing the 300,000 threshold needed.

If it goes ahead, the referendum will focus on the European Union’s Association Agreement with the Ukraine, which has already been ratified by the Dutch government. The signatures will be vetted for authenticity and eligibility by electoral authorities. The wave of support for the petition has been characterised as a signal of popular dissatisfaction with Dutch European policy.

The Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement
The aim of the Agreement is to foster the political relationship with Ukraine, and kick-start economic integration. Supporters say it shifts Ukraine away from Russia and more towards the west. If ratified by all 28 European Union (EU) Member States, it would provide support for Ukraine, both economically and politically. Belgium, Cyprus and Greece have yet to ratify the Agreement. The Agreement has come under criticism from some who fear the Association would lead to Ukraine becoming a new member of the EU. The country is fighting a war against Russian-backed separatists in its East. The fear is that EU intervention in Ukraine may lead to further disagreement with Russia. The proposed referendum could delay the implementation of the deal, handing a diplomatic victory to Russia or perhaps back-track the entire Agreement, which requires unanimity from all Member States to be ratified.

Details of the Agreement include monetary support for political reform and higher production standards in Ukraine. It establishes a political and economic association between the two parties. Ukraine will be committed to reform in economic policy, legislation and regulation across a broad range of areas, including equal rights for workers, visa-free movement of people, and the modernisation of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This will gradually bring Ukraine to EU technical and consumer standards. The EU in return will provide Ukraine with political and financial support.

The Petition
The satirical website, which is broadly anti-EU, stated it chose the Association Agreement as a subject for a referendum simply because it was an EU related topic eligible for a vote under Dutch law. Opponents of the Agreement say that the cost to Dutch tax payers will be in the billions and that the EU’s expansion is having an adverse impact on democracy in Netherlands. They claim that the Dutch parliament no longer does as voters want but rather works in the interests of Brussels. The populist anti-EU MP Geert Wilders called it ‘great’ and Nigel Farage, leader of UKIP, also welcomed the GeenStijl announcement. Mr. Farage said “This push for a Dutch referendum shows that many peoples across Europe, not just the British, are tired of the EU forcing laws, expenses and migrants onto them without their consent.“

Some pro-EU politicians have also commended the ability to attract so many signatories. Kees Verhoeven, MP for the centrist liberal party ‘Democrats 66’, said “D66 is in favour of referendums, and we were in favour of the Treaty” and confirmed that his party would campaign for a Yes vote.

There has been media speculation that Dutch opposition to the Agreement may be because of the on-going conflict in Ukraine. The Netherlands relationship with Moscow has also been strained by the shooting down of an airliner over Ukraine in 2014 with 298 people on board, of whom two-thirds were Dutch.

Dutch Law
In 2014, the Dutch approved legislation to allow ‘advisory referendums’ on controversial topics, if supporters can gather 300,000 signatures or more. The Dutch law came into effect in July 2015 and this is the first opportunity for the Dutch electorate to propose such a referendum.

The Electoral Council will now check the results to make sure the signatures are genuine. Once it gives the green light for the referendum, it must be held within 6 months. This means the vote is likely to take place during the Dutch presidency of the EU, which begins in January.

The referendum is ultimately ‘advisory’ and not binding on the government, but it will be difficult politically to ignore if a high turnout presents a serious opposition to the Agreement.