“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

This was the reaction of Winston Churchill to the British victory over German forces in Egypt in November 1942, signalling a major turning point of World War II. Today, 31 January 2020 the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, but Brexit does not end there. The conclusion of the withdrawal phase is only the ‘end of the beginning’.

This is because the UK and the EU enter a transition phase on 1 February, during which little should change in daily life even though the UK will no longer hold EU membership. The EU and UK must now negotiate agreements on their future relationship, covering a range of areas from security to trade.

The EU, including the Irish government, have consistently said they wish to have as close a relationship with the UK as possible after Brexit. The EU has never offered, for example, a quota and tariff-free trade deal to any other country. That offer is conditional, partly to ensure that the UK does not have easier access to the 450-million strong single market than EU members have.

As the EU member with the closest relationship with the UK, a cooperative EU-UK relationship is much more desirable for Ireland than a competitive one. A lot hinges, therefore, on the choices the British government will make this year.

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