The documents called “Eastern Partnership Programme” signed on May 07 this year between Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus and EU have a great impact. The “Neighborhood Policy” adopted in 2004 and the signed partnership programme are based on a document called “European Security Strategy” adopted in 2003. The observations indicate that the Security Strategy is an outcome of military-political shocks Europe faced on the international level. Thus, in the mid of 1990 EU didn’t do anything to prevent the military conflict in Bosnia. Only after the USA mediatory mission, the Dayton agreement on Bosnia was reached and the conflict was put to an end. Then conflict in Kosovo forced the EU to feel the political-military shock. It’s true that the EU tried to put an end to the conflicts but failed to do so. This is natural, because the EU didn’t have any real mechanisms to settle these conflicts. It should be noted that prevention of this conflict was also reached after NATO intervention. Finally in March 2003 during military operations against Iraq of allies led by USA different opinions were observed within the EU. This is a third shock for Europe. Especially the wars in Balkanlar indicated the EU to stay defenseless. The Iraq war proved the importance of the involvement of the USA in military context in Europe. Ensuring security around the EU is important in regard to ensure its own security.

Today we can list following threats to the EU:

1.     Increase of nuclear weapons
2.     Terror threats
3.     The State Failure model in Neighborhood
4.     Energy security.
This is a main term to get to work out different instruments and carry serious reforms in the neighboring states. In this regard the Eastern Partnership Programme can be considered one of such instruments.
If we give attention to Eastern Partnership Programme and if take into account not only the cooperation in the field of energy security the principles reflected here are the same as the principles of Copenhagen in 1993. Certainly, adding the cooperation in the filed of energy is natural. Because, after the final enlargement in 2007 the European borders closed to a energy origins. Besides, Russian usage of energy factor as a political pressure made topical this question for EU.
The region has strategic importance with geopolitical regard. After collapse of the Soviet Union the regional countries gained their independence and there is built the important hall in geographical context dividing the Russian and Iran geopolitical from each other. Just the South Caucasus region is a unique space playing a role for guaranteed access to Middle Asia of West. So the region has special importance on the context of transit. Besides, region settlement in geographical context between Russia and Iran determines the geopolitical importance on global context. Also, the direct access of region to a basin of Khazar with richest fields of gas and oil shapes  its geo-economic importance.
   
At present the region carries the importance in three directions:

•     The geographical position between Russia and Iran
•     Access to energy resources
•     Importance on context of transit.

Among the above mentioned factors the first and third ones are geographical so they are very stabile. But the second one is not long-lasting. The natural resources are exhausted so this factor is temporarily.
The policy being pursued by Russia toward region mainly looks like a system of relations existed during Soviet period. Russian political establishment didn’t escape from stereotypes of Cold War so this creates a serious problems. This interferes with building bilateral equal relationships with former soviet republics in psychological context. Such a  situation often creates a tension in the bilateral ties. Russia treats to former soviet republics as its own space of interests. This was proved in 2008 August during Russia-Georgia war.
At present Russia is one of the creates exporter of gas and oil to Europe. Just for these natural superiority Russia uses the energy factors in its foreign policy as pressure against western countries. On the bases of this tension there is a chance of South Caucasus to be alternative of Russia in this field. So, this alternative (South Caucasus) gives an outcome like weakening of Middle Asia’s dependence from Russia.
Another factor is Iran. Increasing of probabilities of Iran’s gaining the nuclear weapon makes it real to become a Nuclear State in the near period. Iran in the west part of region as a state of anti-west inclination trying to get a nuclear weapon could be brought cataclysms to region hard to be analyzed. Hereinafter the regional countries must take serious account Iran and Russia factors in their relationships with EU. If Iran get nuclear weapon the “South Caucasus Hall” will be closed again as it was happened during Cold War period. The unsolved problems in the region increase this threat.
At present the problems in region need to be solved are followings:
•    Security
•    Settling of conflicts
•    Sustainable democracy
•    Good governing
•    Social-economic development

Just implementation of articles considered in the Programme (Eastern Partnership) has a great importance in regard of settling of problems above mentioned. Later the EU and the regional countries will earn more.
Another importance of Partnership Programme is that there is considered to create a Civil Society Forum here. Involvement of Civil Societies will create a real condition for programmes to be effective. Of course the Forum to be built can realize mainly a public lobby function, besides, in regard of building and promoting of mutual relationships between Civil Society Institutes of region this Forum will be beneficial. Because, if compare European Movements in South Caucasus with other NGOs it’s clear that three Movements are the institutions who share the same values and have common goal and are real partners. To increase Civil Society Institutes active participation in the process it would be better to give a Forum a status of Observation and Consultative Body.
In the geographical, historical and cultural context the South Caucasian countries are a continuation of Europe and if they can execute this programme successfully this will be a great step toward membership to European Union.

Surkhan Latifov
EM in Azerbaijan