The Croatian parliamentary elections took place on Sunday, 11 September 2016. This was the second time in less than a year that Croatians had gone to the polls, following the collapse of the coalition government which had taken power in January 2016.

Background

Since Croatia declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, the political climate in the country has been dominated by the Social Democrats (SDP) on the Left and the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) on the Right, representing a deeply rooted ideological division dating back to the Second World War. More recently, the aim of each side of the political spectrum was to achieve independence and to further modernise and ‘westernise’ Croatia. Accession to the European Union in 2013 represented the culmination of several important goals; however there has been little political consensus in the years since.

Political Uncertainty

The election was the second in less than a year, as the government formed by HDZ after the election of November 2015 collapsed after months of instability. The Party was supported in coalition by the centre-Right MOST, the ‘Bridge’ of Independent Lists, a recent party formation which aims to provide an alternative to the traditional parties. The ruling coalition under Tihomir Orešković, who was chosen by the HDZ leadership as a non-partisan Prime Minister, represented a shift to the Right in a growing climate of intolerance, with attacks on independent media and minority groups, notably ethnic Serbs. During this period, relations with Serbia were worsened, to a level not seen since the independence war in the mid-1990s. The replacement of key members of the national broadcaster, seemingly on ideological grounds, drew sharp criticism. A considerable faction within the HDZ also had close links with the Catholic Church, and aimed to preserve conservative values in education and in social issues, even blocking widely-supported educational reforms. PM Orešković failed to win widespread support, with perceived linguistic challenges after many years abroad, serving to further undermine him in the public eye. The HDZ party leader, Tomislav Karamarko, resigned in June 2016 after significant internal divisions within the Party, compounded by reports of irregular financial contributions allegedly accepted by his wife from a Hungarian energy company. His replacement, Andrej Plenković, a former MEP, led the HDZ into the 2016 election.

2016 Election

Roughly 3.8 million Croatians were eligible to vote in this year’s contest, which came after several years of a stagnant economy and strained relations between Croatia and some of its Balkan neighbours. The Croatian Parliament, Hrvatski Sabor, has one chamber, with a total of 151 seats, elected via a proportional system. 140 of these seats are decided across 10 multi-member constituencies of 14 seats each. One constituency is reserved for Croatians residing abroad, with three seats allocated for Bosnian Croats and the Croatian diaspora, and a further 8 seats are reserved for national minorities, in the 12th constituency.

Result

By early Monday morning, it became clear that the conservative HDZ was on track to win the most seats in parliament, with a total of 61. The Centre-Left People’s Coalition, which included the SDP and smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats (HNS-LD), the Croatian Peasant Party (HSS) and the Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU) won 54 seats, while the centre-right MOST won 13 seats. The Jedina Opcija (Only Option) coalition, led by the anti-establishment Živi žid (Living Wall), won 8 seats and came in fourth position. The turnout for the parliamentary election was estimated to have fallen by 8% from November 2015, with roughly 1.9 million voters (52.38%) participating. “I am certain that we are the Party that will have a privilege to form the next stable Croatian government,” said HDZ leader Andrej Plenković on Monday. The presumed Prime Minister is also promising a more “Europe-oriented” government. Coalition talks began on Tuesday, 13 September, with MOST expected to feature in the new administration. The HDZ with the support of MOST would still fall short of the 76 seats required, however, and may have to rely on the backing of several representatives from national minorities in order to secure a parliamentary majority.

Implications

A HDZ-led coalition under Mr Plenković will hope to foster greater stability after the turbulence of the previous administration. The Croatian economy is among the weakest in the EU and relies hugely on the tourism industry of Croatia’s Adriatic coastline in particular. Unemployment has reached 13% and public debt has reached 85% of GDP, while the investment climate remains poor, as Croatia emerges from a six year recession. Political deadlock has prevented the enactment of key reforms over the past few years, while allocation of available EU funds since accession has also been problematic. Mending relations with its Balkan neighbours, in particular Serbia, will also be important in the next administration.

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